A difficult decision is made easy when you have the facts:
The common thing we’re hearing throughout the North East are that People want labour out but that the Conservatives are splitting the vote, of course they would say the opposite.
On the streets we’re hearing that historic Labour voters have had enough, they want Labour out – but they cannot bring themselves to vote Conservative. They’ve seen the lies on the leaflets, the wrong spelling ‘Blythe’ on the first leaflets, they’ve heard Susan Dungworth, know the damage Corbyn would do, and of course there’s that small issue of Brexit!
Historic Conservative voters are conceding that ‘Tories don’t have a chance up here’.
In the 2017 elections the Conservatives promised the people that their leave vote would be honoured, parties like UKIP encouraged their voters to go to Conservative, even some Labour voters tried it, they were let down. This year the Tories are fielding a remain voting candidate (Ian Levy), pulling many of the historic Tories to The Brexit Party.
As you can see, historically Blyth Valley has been a strong labour hold, with the Conservatives gaining an extra 2-5% each General election. The biggest increase for both labour and conservative we in 2017, Conservatives have never been higher than third place until UKIP stood down and lent them their vote in 2017.
Even with the highest percentage increase they have had they could expect to get 8772 Votes (that’s 2015 up by the 5.1%), is that enough to get labour out and save us from Corbyn and the destruction of Britain?
We however stand to take an absolutely huge percentage of the vote, as UKIP did in the 2015 election. This time around Labour are campaigning for remain, that with the ‘corbyn effect’ is seeing a huge shift and we expect to not only have the UKIP vote, but at least half of the labour vote too, add on the conservative voters (est: 10-20% shift to TBP) that are moving to us daily and you can see why The Brexit Party are leading the way.
Misleading polls have been published, showing the results from 2017 – ignoring that the only true leave party was not an option at that time. The 2015 polls would give you a better idea, and this years 2019 EU vote shows the current state of play. The polls in question are using a ‘formula’ made up by the remain side (Gina Miller) in an attempt to split the vote.
Electoral Calculas has also published a ‘prediction’, based on the 2017 vote.